The government could breach its self-imposed cap on welfare spending as a result of the cost of the main sickness benefit, leaked documents say.
Internal government memos seen by the BBC suggest Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) costs are rising and few cost-cutting options are available.
In March MPs agreed a 2015-16 welfare cap of £119.5bn, excluding the state pension and some unemployment benefits.
Ministers have insisted they will not breach the cap.
They said they would take measures to ensure welfare spending comes under it.
If the limit is breached, ministers will have to explain to Parliament and ask MPs to approve additional spending.
Meanwhile, a report by MPs has branded the implementation of another benefit, Personal Independence Payments (PIP), a "fiasco".
PIP is replacing Disability Living Allowance, but the Commons Public Accounts Committee said the reform had been "rushed", with some claims delayed by more than six months.
'Fiscal risk'ESA was introduced in 2008 to replace Incapacity Benefit - intended for people who are unable to work because of sickness or disability.
Claimants undergo tests to see how their illness or disability affects their ability to work before learning whether they are eligible.
Work and Pensions Select Committee chairman Dame Anne Begg told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the ESA seemed to be doing no better than Incapacity Benefit.
She said: "The big criticism of Incapacity Benefit was that people were put on it and left and nobody reassessed.
"With the ESA, there is constant reassessment, but of course that's expensive and that's putting a burden on the health assessors... in order to keep up with the numbers they have to deal with."
The leaked documents say the cost of ESA is projected to rise by nearly £13bn between the current financial year and 2018-19 and is "one of the largest fiscal risks currently facing the government".
The increasing number of claimants, caused by people moving off Jobseeker's Allowance and on to ESA, was cited as a main reason for the rising costs.
BBC social affairs correspondent Michael Buchanan said that, according to those writing the papers, this was because ESA has fewer sanctions - when someone's benefit is stopped for misconduct - than Jobseeker's Allowance.
The documents also say the severity of ESA claimants' illnesses and disabilities has been underestimated - meaning people are staying on the benefit longer than expected.
'Shambolic'Problems with the private firm Atos, which has carried out benefit health assessments for the government, have also increased ESA costs.
Earlier this month ministers said more than 700,000 people were waiting for an assessment for ESA.
It blamed the delays on Atos, which has agreed to end its contract early.
But the leaked documents say the new contractor - due to be appointed in 2015 - is expected to cost roughly three times the £100m annual deal with Atos.
Meanwhile, criticising the rollout of PIP, Commons Public Accounts Committee chairman Margaret Hodge said the Department for Work and Pensions had "let down some of the most vulnerable people in our society".
She told the BBC's 5live that seriously ill people were having to wait too long just to be assessed.
"This is an example of a very shambolic introduction of a new benefit designed to help the most vulnerable group in our society to the extra costs in their living," she said.
Elsewhere, the government's flagship welfare reform is to be rolled out to more jobcentres from next week.
Universal Credit, which is six different benefits rolled into one, will be expanded in England's North West following a series of delays.
The new benefit is currently available in 10 places.
The government announced in April that it would be rolled out across 90 jobcentres in the North West from June for single people.
From Monday, four more job centres will offer it. The remaining 86 should be ready by the end of the year.
Dame Anne said the government had "a long way to go" with the credit.
Do you claim Employment and Support Allowance? Do you receive Personal Independence Payments? You can email your experiences to haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk using the subject line 'Welfare'.
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